Former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra and his youngest daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the current Prime Minister of Thailand, were recently observed making high-profile international visits, with a particular emphasis on regional cooperation and diplomatic relations. These diplomatic moves by the former and current Thai prime ministers are important and provide insights into their political strategies, while also bolstering the Thai Government's influence in the region. In particular, Thaksin's overseas activities are advantageous in terms of strengthening his political influence outside the country. They also have a substantial influence on the broader implications of ASEAN affairs and Thai politics.
In recent decades, Thailand has seemingly diminished in international prominence due to unstable domestic politics. In December of the previous year, Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim designated Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Prime Minister of Thailand, as an "informal adviser" during Malaysia's chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Thaksin's consequent visit to Malaysia in February 2025 marked the first time the Thai Criminal Court granted him permission to travel abroad since he returned to Thailand in August 2023 after years of self-exile, which has sparked speculation regarding its potential role in regional relationships that may benefit his political allies and networks, not only in Malaysia but also in other ASEAN member nations. Further, Thaksin’s visit to Malaysia, a key economic and political partner, and their informal discussions highlight the necessity for peace and stability in Myanmar, alongside economic interests that prioritise the advancement of cryptocurrencies.
Due to his criminal convictions on Lèse-majesté charges and Computer Crime Act violations, the court denied Thaksin's request to travel to Vietnam and Cambodia on personal invitations from a Vietnamese businessman and former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. However, he was later permitted to attend a meeting in Brunei with Anwar Ibrahim to engage with Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, during which a thorough discussion was held on the conflict in Myanmar and ways to revive the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus (5PC) for South China Sea disputes. Given Brunei's leading role in ASEAN and its economic influence in the region, Thaksin’s visit may be seen as an effort to foster diplomatic goodwill or economic partnerships, potentially shaping future regional collaborations. These engagements serve to underscore his substantial influence in regional affairs. Whether as an informal advisor or a behind-the-scenes strategist, Thaksin has taken advantage of his position in ASEAN to implement several initiatives for the Thai government under Paetongtarn, such as peace negotiations for the southern border provinces that share a border with Malaysia. He has highlighted the necessity for dialogue in resolving enduring conflicts and noted the requirement for collaborative solutions to tackle economic challenges, along with other critical issues such as drug trafficking and regional security, referring to the ongoing political crisis in Myanmar as the "elephant in the room" for ASEAN under its doctrine of non-interference into the internal affairs of member states. Then, engaging in informal negotiations or discussions could be crucial for the leaders of ASEAN countries.
As the father of the current Thai Prime Minister, Thaksin is serving in an informal capacity overseas while at the same time attempting to maintain or even strengthen his political influence outside the country. In the same period, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as his daughter and Thai Prime Minister, visited China to celebrate a "golden year of friendship,” or the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. This visit reflects Thailand's growing diplomatic and economic ties with China, which are intended to foster cooperation in various sectors. This includes cultural diplomacy through Buddhism and the implementation of collaborative security measures to combat online scam networks that have plagued Southeast Asia, as well as to rebuild trust and encourage Chinese tourism as an essential market for Thailand's economy. It is evident that the suspension of electricity supplies to numerous locations in Myanmar involved a billion-dollar online scam industry. Following Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s visit to China, Thailand’s decision to deport Uyghur refugees back to China has drawn criticism from opposition parties as well as from several countries and international organisations. This action has sparked worries regarding the direction of Thailand’s foreign policy and its approach to human rights issues, especially those related to its ties with Beijing.
The Shinawatras abroad exemplify a political dynasty within the context of Thai politics, presenting a unique situation of dual prime ministers—one officially designated as prime minister and the other exerting significant influence without a formal title, effectively leading without official authority. Moreover, Thaksin leveraged his political network and ASEAN as a platform to showcase his ability to circumvent legal restrictions on his international travel and the prohibition of holding political positions. Consequently, Thaksin’s actions abroad have been closely monitored by both allies and rivals. Although Thaksin's roles in official ASEAN events and Thai public platforms are informal, his presence and impact on the foreign policy of the Paetongtarn administration are indisputable. Questions persist concerning Thailand’s domestic politics and Paetongtarn's leadership roles within the Thai government. Questions remain regarding the political authority and legitimacy of Thaksin's actions and initiatives and sovereignty concerns regarding China's influence. The opposition parties will raise these issues to challenge Paetongtarn's prime ministership during the coming vote of no confidence in Parliament, while opponents outside of Parliament are also highlighting the attacks on Thaksin and the Pheu Thai Party-led government.
Thailand's diplomatic agenda under the Shinawatras illustrates the complex interplay between diplomacy, politics, and regional affairs. Their actions have more profound international political implications in enhancing Thailand's diplomatic standing and regional influence. These actions appear inconspicuous but they maintain and strengthen their power both within and outside the country and may engender mixed domestic reactions. These visits could impact the dynamics within the ASEAN community, particularly if Thaksin is perceived as an unofficial envoy or influencer in Thai foreign relations and continues his international engagements.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of IIPA and this platform.
Author
Suthikarn Meechan is a non-resident research fellow at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs, and is an Associate Professor at the College of Politics and Governance, Mahasarakham University in Thailand.