Pheu Thai’s Decline: Can Thailand’s Once-Dominant Party Adapt?

Amid mounting pressure on the Pheu Thai-led government, Thaksin Shinawatra's recent remarks at the Nation Group’s 55th anniversary were more than just a public statement; they marked a strategic attempt to regain trust and navigate Thailand's turbulent political landscape.

Pheu Thai, once an unrivaled political powerhouse in Thailand, is now experiencing a marked decline. Its alliances with former military rivals and the electorate's growing demand for structural reforms have considerably eroded the party's credibility among its traditional supporters, raising questions about its political integrity, the coalition government's effectiveness, and its alignment with national security interests.  This piece delves into the reasons behind this decline and explores how Pheu Thai can adapt to face these challenges.

Weakening Political Bases

Despite securing 141 seats in 2023, Pheu Thai now faces a crisis of relevance, as voters shift to parties offering structural reforms. The party, previously a significant entity in electoral politics with robust grassroots connections in the North andthe Northeastern rural areas, is currently experiencing a decline in influence both online and offline. These regions, once a stronghold for Thaksin-era populism, now demand policies beyond short-term aid, focusing instead on more fundamental, structural changes.

The Move Forward Party, now referred to as the People's Party, challenges Pheu Thai in the online sphere through its effective digital mobilisation strategies. The Bhumjaithai Party, now a freshly minted opposition force after its coalition exit, has expanded its provincial networks by leveraging dynastic ties and local patronage systems, as shown in recent provincial elections. Pheu Thai's legacy of public assistance and local support is eroding. For instance, the 10,000-baht digital wallet scheme, once seen as a means to foster loyalty, now seems like a short-term stopgap given rising demands for structural reforms.

In the current landscape, digital campaigns and issue-focused movements now outperform Pheu Thai's traditional grassroots tactics. A noticeable trend among voters shows them turning away from temporary solutions, opting instead for political parties that advocate for comprehensive reform. In traditional strongholds like Khon Kaen and Roi Et, younger candidates have begun to outperform Pheu Thai’s older political machinery by directly addressing urban concerns and place-based demands. These new players operate outside the party’s hierarchical structures, employing grassroots digital campaigns that Pheu Thai struggles to replicate.

Youth Disengagement and Generational Distance

Pheu Thai's decline stems from a widening generational gap. Many youth voters, particularly those politicised by the 2020–21 protest movements, perceive Pheu Thai as outdated, ambiguous, or even complicit in maintaining the status quo. The coalition with military-backed parties further alienated young progressives. In contrast, the People's Party has successfully tapped into the aspirations of young Thais with bold positions on military accountability, digital rights, and educational equality. Their adept use of social media and direct, values-based messaging appeals to a generation that views politics as a vehicle for transformation — not compromise.

There is increasing evidence that Pheu Thai's reliance on Thaksin-era nostalgia and populism falls short. A June 2025 NIDA poll found that Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the opposition leader and People's Party chief, overtook Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra as the most preferred candidate for premier. The leak of an audio clip between Paetongtarn and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen further dented public trust, reinforcing perceptions of opaque elite dealings. Alarmingly for Pheu Thai, this disillusionment now extends to parts of the youth who once idealised its anti-military stance.

Strategic Drift, Elite Bargaining and Fragmentation of Loyalties

Paetongtarn’s rise highlights the persisting nature of dynastic politics. While she has called for “modernising Thaksinomics,” internal tensions remain between the old guard and younger reformists. The Shinawatra brand—though still symbolically powerful—has gradually lost its mass mobilisation capacity. Facilitating Thaksin’s return via elite bargaining underscores Pheu Thai’s shift from a mass-based party to a status-quo actor. While the move offered short-term stability, it severely damaged the party’s credibility among core supporters—especially Red Shirt activists, who viewed the alliance with former coup-makers and the party's lack of bold commitments in its platform to democratic reforms, such as constitutional changes or amnesty, as betrayals. This shift signals a transformation from a pragmatic policy innovator into a centrist force prioritising political stability through compromise—at the expense of ideological clarity.

Pheu Thai’s internal struggles reflect broader shifts in Thailand’s political culture. Thailand’s political divide now centres on progressive versus conservative values, not loyalty to Thaksin. Class identities have grown more fluid, ideological diversity has expanded, and voters now prioritise transparency and accountability over party loyalty.

Caught between nostalgia and uncertainty, Pheu Thai appears trapped—too rooted in its past to fully embrace the new political era, yet too hesitant to define a forward-looking vision. Its messaging lacks the moral urgency of the progressive movement and the clarity it once possessed. At the local level, Pheu Thai’s dominance has eroded. Formerly unchallenged regional operatives now compete with various local networks, Red Shirt veterans charting independent paths, and issue-based campaigns. The party is no longer the singular voice of rural discontent; it is just one among many contenders in a diversified electoral marketplace.

However, Pheu Thai’s decline is not unique. Across Southeast Asia, traditional populist and dynastic parties such as the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) in Malaysia and the Marcos dynasty in the Philippines—are facing growing resistance from digitally savvy, reform-minded electorates. This regional pattern suggests that Southeast Asia’s political future is increasingly shaped by generational divides, digital mobilisation, and value-based politics. Legacy parties like Pheu Thai must evolve—or risk obsolescence. These deepening divisions demand urgent action.

What’s Next for Pheu Thai?

The Constitutional Court's suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has plunged Thailand into deeper political turmoil, fueling calls for her resignation or parliamentary dissolution. To survive this crisis—and remain competitive in future elections—Pheu Thai must urgently pursue two critical reforms: reclaiming its eroding political base and democratising its internal structures.

First, the party must reconnect with its traditional rural base while strategically appealing to the growing urban progressive electorate. This dual approach is crucial. For its traditional rural base, the party should revive proven populist policies—cash transfers, farm subsidies, and debt relief—while modernising their delivery to counter rivals like Bhumjaithai. For urban progressives, it must go beyond economics and embrace structural reforms: rewriting the constitution and reducing military power in politics. Crucially, Pheu Thai must overhaul its communications strategy. Partnering with youth influencers and leveraging digital platforms could help bypass state-controlled media and directly engage younger voters disillusioned by the party’s outdated tactics.

Second, Pheu Thai needs to undertake a significant internal democratisation of its party structures. This means moving away from the perception of a centralised, Shinawatra-dominated hierarchy towards a more inclusive and member-driven organisation. Democratising its internal structures—through member-elected leadership and grassroots-driven candidate selection—would reduce centralised control and rebuild trust. Such initiatives would represent a substantial departure from the "old guard" influence and are essential to restoring credibility and trust with a disillusioned Thai electorate, particularly those who seek genuine political reform and less dynastic control.

Half-measures won’t suffice. Unless Pheu Thai embraces systemic reform—not just tactical adjustments—it risks fading into irrelevance, alienated from younger generations and Thailand’s evolving political landscape.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of IIPA and this platform.

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Author

Suthikarn Meechan is an Associate Professor at the College of Politics and Governance, Mahasarakham University in Thailand, and a non-resident research fellow at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs based in Christchurch, New Zealand.

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